take your answer off the air...

  • HorsesAss.Org: the straight poop on WA politics & the press
    progressive brilliance from the guy who pointed out Tim Eyman's nascent horse's-assedness
  • Talker's Magazine
    The quirky talk radio trade mag. Check the Talk Radio Research Project- it's not very scientific, but places on the top 15 talkers list (scroll down to Talk Radio Audiences By Size)) are as hotly contested as Emmys (and mean just about as much).
  • The Advocate
    No, not THAT Advocate... it's the Northwest Progressive Institute's Official Blog.
  • Media Matters
    Documentation of right-wing media in video, audio and text.
  • Orcinus
    home of David Neiwert, freelance investigative journalist and author who writes extensively about far-right hate groups
  • Hominid Views
    "People, politics, science, and whatnot" Darryl is a statistician who fights imperialism with empiricism, gives good links and wry commentary.
  • Jesus' General
    An 11 on the Manly Scale of Absolute Gender, a 12 on the Heavenly Scale of the 10 Commandments and a 6 on the earthly scale of the Immaculately Groomed.
  • Howie in Seattle
    Howie Martin is the Abe Linkin' of progressive Seattle.
  • Streaming Radio Guide
    Hellishly long (5795!) list of radio streaming, steaming on the Internets.
  • The Naked Loon
    News satire -- The Onion in the Seattle petunia patch.
  • Irrational Public Radio
    "informs, challenges, soothes and/or berates, and does so with a pleasing vocal cadence and unmatched enunciation. When you listen to IPR, integrity washes over you like lava, with the pleasing familiarity of a medium-roast coffee and a sensible muffin."
  • The Maddow Blog
    Here's the hyper-interactive La Raych of MSNBC. daily show-vids, freakishly geeky research, and classy graphics.
  • Northwest Broadcasters
    The AM, FM, TV and digital broadcasters of Northwest Washington, USA and Southwest British Columbia, Canada. From Kelso, WA to the northern tip of Vancouver Island, BC - call letters, formats, slogans, networks, technical data, and transmitter maps. Plus "recent" news.
  • News Corpse
    The Internet's chronicle of media decay.
  • The Moderate Voice
    The voice of reason in the age of Obama, and the politics of the far-middle.
  • News Hounds
    Dogged dogging of Fox News by a team who seems to watch every minute of the cable channel so you don't have to.
  • HistoryLink
    Fun to read and free encyclopedia of Washington State history. Founded by the late Walt Crowley, it's an indispensable tool and entertainment source for history wonks and surfers alike.

right-wing blogs we like

  • The Reagan Wing
    Hearin lies the real heart of Washington State Republicans. Doug Parris runs this red-meat social conservative group site which bars no holds when it comes to saying who they are and who they're not; what they believe and what they don't; who their friends are and where the rest of the Republicans can go. Well-written, and flaming.
  • Orbusmax
    inexhaustible Drudgery of NW conservative news
  • The Radio Equalizer
    prolific former Seattle KVI, KIRO talk host speaks authoritatively about radio.
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« The perfesser is back! fred ebert returns to local airwaves | Main | Parvaz kicks hannity's ass in halloween brawl »

October 30, 2007

Comments

Janet Morrow

Brinker is hard to understand; I guess I'm just stupid.

joanie

And he gets annoyed easily.

chuck s: I was in the deferred comp program under another job. For about seven years and made a bundle which got hit by the 1999-2000 fiasco which left me with exactly what I had invested and nothing more. I had to use it for an emergency when it hit bottom - it was unavoidable. Just my luck! I could have transferred it to bonds but I didn't know that. Seems like for me, investing is learning by trial and error and I don't expect to live long enough for that!

But, yes, I am planning to reinvest in deferred comp again but just haven't done it. Nobody else worried about the future of the US stock market? If you say not, I'll get it done. I once told a parent of mine that if she wanted to know if a stock/the stock market was going up or down, just ask me if I invested. If I did, stay out.

I've been bitten pretty bad and taken to the cleaners in commissions with brokers I trusted. I've done better in real estate but that's pretty much run its course except for the very rich who can continue to buy. No cheap land anywhere.

Anybody heard of that Suncadia they're building up by Roslyn? I stopped by last summer. I mean it is in the middle of nowhere and yet starts at $250,000. Prices in Roslyn have skyrocketed. Somebody's got money. Ain't me.

I've just had bad luck in the market no matter who has helped me or how I've done it. I don't know. I'm pretty pissed about it.

joanie

You know, chuck s. - puts, I had one very nice account left that also took a huge hit in the same 1999-2000 tech fiasco (I was investing in two deferred comp programs because I had two jobs) and the then broker who was someone I knew and trusted put over half of it in bonds. It went up slightly. Even I knew that was a mistake but didn't try to second guess him. When I finally fired him, I really didn't know what to do. So, it's still there. I know . . . makes me cry.

I am just not lucky and I worry that as soon as I take that last remaining bundle of cash and put it in the market, it's gonna go down.

What do you guys think of the US economy? It is in trouble if you listen to economists . . . when's the big one gonna hit? The Euro is doing better than the dollar and Canadian money is at parity.

I just don't know.

I'm pretty risk tolerant and could kill the jerk that put me in bonds but I am getting older now and just not sure what to do.

Chuck s. you think the economy will hold up? Or do I worry a little too much? Puts - what does Brinker say about the economy? He still bullish?

PugetSound

Joanie
I can feel the pain you describe. If nothing else, I really hope you take advantage of employer matching and deferred comp programs. I would assume you would be in the 3rd Portfolio. Brinker's show is about individual self knowledge. You don't have to be invested in his models to profit from listening to his show on pod or whatnot. Consider it homework of sorts for your financial future.
He is still fully invested in the market and his three models over the last ten years outperformed the stock market index with even his most conservative model. Before the market downtown in 2000 he called it and advised people to shift to more conservative investments. (If you google him, you'll see two ads that highlight negative stuff about Brinker but if you click and read it is just bs marketing ads to steer you off and buy something from them.) I've been listening to him since 1990 and have been most happy when I follow his model (helped to pay for a lot of college coming out of the army).
Go to his website and get the free newsletter. He actually isnt so much about you buying his 'funds' as he is about you the individual investor getting involved in high quality no load mutual funds. Despite the name Market Timer he is a long term investor that doesn't shift in and out of the market like a Timer will.


10 years ended 12-31-06 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 323%
Portfolio II: 233%
Portfolio III: 145% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Total Stock Market Index: 127% (VTSMX)

It isn't as sexy as Tommy 08's results but I think Tommy would be the first to say that he has a little different time horizon/appetite for risk than most.

joanie

Puts, there's always runs up and models showing the bright side. I seem to hit the bears running . . . what does Brinker say about that?

PugetSound

Brinker is a long term type. I can understand your frustration which was why I used the last ten years. The models are used to mitigate risk. Despite the name, Market Timer, he emphasizes not jumping in and out. He is different than say a Jim Cramer that likes to pick individual stocks. And he wouldn't be for Tommy that has his own method.
Brinker uses mutual funds as a good way to mitigate risk by being invested in a number of entities as opposed to one. For every Google, there is a crapload of QualComs.
Give him a listen for the next few months.

chucks

joanie
I wish I new how to help you better. As stated in a previous thread, I fear a crash in the near future. That is based on my own observations about RV sales and years of experience. I am trying to learn which investments went well in 2000, 2001, 2002, which was the last time we had an open POTUS seat for election time.
We are in the exact same position today as we were then. A six year bear run and then crash. And then another bear run will come again.
Traditionally Nov and December are good stock months. So I am conflicted about putting my money in safe storage now. If I can not figure out timing and lose some, I will stay in anyway. If the market were to loose 25% next week, I will still make good money over the next ten years. No matter what, we still need to invest all we can now. Even after the losses we suffered before, money left in after the last crash, rather than withdrawn is still worth more than double, combined with consistent investing makes for a very nice sum. And it will repeat at least once before we retire.
puts is right about finding a professional to advise who does not get paid by commision to sell you something that may be in his/her best interest rather than your best interest.

joanie

Thanks you guys. Really. Good advice and mostly I just needed to hear it again. I've been frozen for quite a while. That one broker who put me into such a conservative investment when I still had a lot of earning time was kind of the last straw. I was in it long enough to miss out on the obvious run-up that has occurred since 2000. When I finally fired him, I just couldn't seem to take the chance that I had missed it again, the crash was imminent, and I kept the funds I had left in a conservative place.

I agree Brinker does seem to know his stuff. But, puts, as much as I blog on this site, I do not have the time to listen and read . . . I've got homework of another kind to do. My job does not end at 5 pm or whatever. That's why I'm often posting at midnight.

Having said that, if I move my little nest egg next week, I guarantee the market will do a redux of 2000 the week after. You want me to do that guys? You willing to take the chance? :)

PugetSound

don't put in a big lump sum. be conservative and dollar cost average it back into the market over the next 12 months ie if you have $12k put in $1k each month. if the market starts to tank view it as an opportunity for your dollar cost averaging amount to actually buy more. but think long term with at least a 7 -10 year horizon buying high quality/no load funds such as Vanguard. You can also get some foreign funds.
you can pod brinker for $5 a month. you don't have to listen to the entire 3 hours each week at a pop. just put it on as background whilst you do your regular stuff at home. it'll be boring as tap water in comparison to jim kramer but he is a little too manic for me. i like my investment talk to be boring and long term type stuff.
if i was in your situation i would really consider spending a few hundred and sitting down with a fee based financial counselor for some of his/her thoughts on where you are at. from your prior posts you sound like you have property that should with strong equity positions and your teacher job should offer a decent pension of sorts to supplement ssn. you may be in a stronger position than you suspect.
sincerely, best of luck.

chucks

Additionally joanie:
If your investment money is available to you without tax penalty upon withdrawal (ie in regular savings as apposed to an IRA or 401K). Put in the full amount allowed by law into deferred comp through the state via your paycheck and withdraw from savings to live on if you must. At 50 years of age, you can put over 20K per year in pre-tax. All of your investment goes in without paying 20-25% income taxes. If your investment were to lose 10% this year, you would still be 10-15% ahead just
If you spread your investment wisely among the choices available to you, you wont lose money.

joanie

Thanks chucks, that last part was important for me. Feeling better about things . . . :)

And puts, you emphasize the positive which I also needed to hear. :)

joanie

One more thing: I listened to Krugman on Ross (podcast) and he doesn't seem worried about stocks . . . his issues are more about equity.

John

I'm *still* laughing about the perm 'libel'.

zomg, that's funnier than putting The Simpsons, Family Guy, Futurama and South Park's best seasons in a blender and putting the result on tv.

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    pacific nw talk stations

    • KIRO 710ESPN Seattle 710 KHz
      Games and sports-blabber
    • KIROFM 97.3
      Multi-format: news and nearly all local talk. This is where classic KIRO AM news talk radio went... hopefully, not to die. The home of Dave Ross & Luke Burbank, Dori Monson, Ron & Don, Frank Shiers, Bill Radke, Linda Thomas, Tony Miner and George Noory.
    • KUOW FM 94.9
      Seattle's foremost public radio news and talk.
    • KVI am 570 KHz
      Visit the burnt-out husk of one of the seminal right-wing talkers in all the land. Here's where once trilled the reactionary tones of Rush Limbaugh, John Carlson, Kirby Wilbur, Mike Siegel, Peter Weissbach, Floyd Brown, Dinky Donkey, and Bryan Suits. Now it's Top 40 hits from the '60's & '70's aimed at that diminishing crowd who still remembers them and can still hear.
    • KTTH am 770 KHz
      Right wing home of local, and a whole bunch of syndicated righties such as Glennn Beck, Rush Limbaugh, Michael Medved, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, Lars Larsony, and for an hour a day: live & local David Boze.
    • KPTK am 1090 KHz
      Syndicated liberal talk. Stephanie Miller, Thom Hartmann, Ed Schultz, Randi Rhodes, Norman Goldman fill in the large hole to the left on Northwest radio dial.
    • KLFE AM 1590 kHz
      Syndicated right-wing 2nd stringers like Mark Levin, Bill Bennett, Mike Gallagher, Dennis Prager, Dennis Miller and Hugh Hewitt inhabit this timid-voiced neighbor honker for your radio enjoyment (unless you're behind something large like Costco).
    • KOMOAM
      News, traffic, Ken Schram and John Carlson.
    • Washington State Radio Stations
      Comprehensive list of every danged AM & FM station on the dial.
    • KKOL am 1300 KHz
      Once a rabid right-wing talker, except for Lou Dobbs, it's all business....