WINTER ARBITRON RATINGS ARE HERE!!! AND SURE ENOUGH, KIRO SUCKS.

The Arbitron ratings are in. BlatherWatch’s vast network of moles, plumbers, leakers, deep throats, blathermonkeys and bag men located in strategic cubicles in the belly of the beast are coming up with reliable numbers from the Winter Book (Jan, Feb, Mar).

BlatherWatch knows this stuff is snarky, and a little complicated. But we get more requests for ratings that anything else (except, of course, for us to put some pants on and get a real job). For a rundown how Arbitrary-tron works, (it’s quite the travesty) click here for our definitive post, Cooking The Book.

We don’t have much yet from KVI, KTTH, KOMO or Air America. But we’re loaded with the KIRO goods and as we predicted, the goods are bad.

The new out-of-the-box line-up, so highly touted by its perps, PD Tom Clendening and afternoon talk host Dori Monson, has been an abysmal blow-out.

KIRO sank to 6th place in the the not-so-meaningful “all listeners 12 and older,” demographic, going from a 5.0 to 4.2 audience share.

But even worse, in the vital 25-54 year old adults demo, the place where radio stations live or die, KIRO went from 8th to 13th place.

KIRO’s January numbers were strongest, but eroded each month. When the January numbers go away, (Arbitron trends are a rolling 3 months) and are replaced by KOMO’s high Mariners’ ratings, KIRO will really be in the House of Poo.

Devastating is KIRO’s fall from 4th to 9th in the morning drive (6-10a). This has always been a time slot KIRO could take to the bank. “With it weakening,” our guy says, “it's abandon ship time ...horrible for the sales department, because many ad buys are based on the top 3 or 5 morning drive stations in the 25-54 demo.”

Allen Prell and Dori Monson’s 10a-3p: fell from 13th to 16th. There’s huge overhead with these two highly paid hosts, producers, and a bevy of newsies.  And all this, says a source, “for numbers that some of the tiniest, bare bones operations are now beating. Not only is Prell DOA, says our guy, “but Monson is in absolutely huge trouble.”

(Sources say Al Franken came in at 18th in this time slot, which we say is not too bad).

Dave Ross in the 3 to 7p ratings period, gave KIRO a ray of hope, though meager. The news block he replaced was 14th in the fall, Ross made 10th. That's a little lower than he scored in his old slot and last year, and the news he replaced was in 9th place in the comparable 2004 period.

Tony Ventrella and Mike Webb (7-midnight) are a catastrophe. They went from 9th to 15th place, and in the baseball season, they'll be lucky to stay in the top 20.

Sources deep in the bowels of Entercom now say KIRO firings are not likely quite yet. Ratings are in a free fall and no one knows where the bottom will be. When they stabilize, look for some of the help being frog-walked scross the street to the Azteca for a good-bye single malt. 

We can tell you that in the 12+ ratings (which don't tell you much), AM1090 (Air America) gained a half point, a good thing, but not a great thing. KVI lost nearly half a share, the lackluster KOMO lost a couple of points; (but they’ll perk up next month with baseball). KTTH lost a half share but stayed ahead of KVI by a single point.

Stay tuned and stand by and we'll get some more definitive 25-54 numbers for these stations.

Comments

[bj]

Just started reading BW, after clicking through from Goldy's blog. It's fascinating, well-written, and I hope you stay with it.

Regarding all the recent ups and downs of local talk radio, I'd be interested in some comment about how much these on-air personalities actually make for three hours of chat and (I assume) a little prep time...

[GetAnAgent]

#1 Dave Ross +/- 250k *
#2 Kirby Wilbur +/- 200k
#2A John Carlson ditto
#3 Dori Monson +/- 150-175
#4 Mike Siegel +/- 125k

* Medved's makes 150k base from KTTH, plus approx 150k from syndication. But that's changing.

[GotAnAgent]

right on Ross & Wilbur, Carlson around $350,000, right on Monson, Siegel.

Medved not paid by Entercom, just Salem. Fisher paid him $25,000/yr. for promotional events.

[bj]

Thanks. Plus, I assume, all the extra fees for those incessant and annoying commercials. (Is Dori Monson's goal to be the spokeman for absolutely everyone that wants to advertise on KIRO?)

[bj]

To give some background for us non-media types, can you define a few things:

1. Is "audience share" just the percentage of all people who have their radios on at a given time who are listening to a particular station?

2. How do I tranlate audience share to actually number of listeners? (I'm just curious.) With 3,165,700 people (12+) in the Seattle area, what percentage actually do have their radios on at some time (say, during prime time at 10 am, or 3 pm)?

[blathering Michael]

This from our Post "Cooking The Book, http://blatherwatch.blogs.com/talk_radio/2005/02/cooking_the_boo.html
(a hell of a read)
"Accuracy in the overall ratings are questionable as well. Arbitron compiles numbers from a list of "listener diaries," mailed out to people they allege are randomly selected. They're supposed to fill out the long and rather time-consuming surveys and mail them back.

Arbitron says these diaries are sent to some two million people in the US over the age of 12; but admit only half send them back. Since there are over 230 million people in the US in that age category, the sample is pretty pathetic in terms of the population as a whole."

Don't know how to translate that dubious sample into actual listeners--Arbitron doesn't say how many of those diaries are in the Seattle market. It's an info-monopoly and all very suspect. NPR, a large player in this mkt isn't included.

[Scrilla]

In the Portland market, KOPB fm beats all BUT top 40 and country. Including KXL.
They have 4 day pledge drives, twice a year.
In the SeaTac market the KPLU/KUOW schism would probably result in a 60/40 split.

One of the great untold rating stories is the "weighted average" that Arbitron applies to minority books. Minorities return correctly competed books at %25 average so they get "weighted" accordingly.
But, we could go on forever.

[Ding]

Michael,

With all due respect, once again you display your ignorace of the business.

Arbitron DOES say how many diaries are returned in each market. It's printed right in the front of every Arbitron book under IN-TAB SAMPLE.

Arbitron DOES include KUOW and KPLU and all the public stations. The information is just not included in the R&R published numbers that radio wannabes like you use for information.

And speaking of R&R and those 12+ numbers, some sales people do make hay based on 12+ cume, but for the most part 12+ numbers are meaningless.

KUOW and KPLU are an enormous ratings force in seattle. They simulcast drive-time programming and, when combined, are a solid number one in both morning and afternoon drive.

You and your "leakers" seem to have it in for KIRO. But you fail to understand they, and KMPS-FM, are still the dominant revnue leaders in the market. And KIRO is still the #1 NT station in Seattle.

My insiders tell me the KIRO sales team is actually optimistic about the Winter book. Allan Prell replaced market legend Dave Ross and saw only a modest dip in share. In fact, his 12+ numbers are better than the station did in that time slot last Spring.

And Dave Ross, in just one book, got better numbers in afternoon drive than the station had in the fall. (Even though it had been doing a PM Drive News Show for TWENTY-FIVE years...now thats a WOW!)

If you want to find people jumping out windows, look to Fisher Plaza. They spend $10,000,000.00 for baseball. They overspend on a large (and aging) news-team. KIRO reduces the amount of news they're doing. And KOMO still figures out a way to sink further in the key demos.

If you want a real story, look into how many Fisher sales types are calling Entercom, KPLU and KUOW looking for a new gig.

A little more researched insight and a little less blathering would be refreshing.

[blathering Michael]

Mr. Clendening: Thanks for the info, but we stand by our piece which, if you read it, was not based on the R&R 12+ ratings, which we also have said repeatedly are meaningless.

[Brian in Lacey wa.]

Hay ! Hay ! HAy ! dont be picking on my new best friend David Boze !!!!!!! He is the man !!! and does a super job !!!!!!

[umo]

Radio neophytes dont realize that the real indicator of a radio station's success is not its ratings numbers but its billing numbers. KOMO might have a slightly higher rating than KIRO, but they paid exhorbitant fees for Mariner rights. KIRO is a much more profitable station than KOMO.