take your answer off the air...

  • HorsesAss.Org: the straight poop on WA politics & the press
    progressive brilliance from the guy who pointed out Tim Eyman's nascent horse's-assedness
  • Talker's Magazine
    The quirky talk radio trade mag. Check the Talk Radio Research Project- it's not very scientific, but places on the top 15 talkers list (scroll down to Talk Radio Audiences By Size)) are as hotly contested as Emmys (and mean just about as much).
  • The Advocate
    No, not THAT Advocate... it's the Northwest Progressive Institute's Official Blog.
  • Media Matters
    Documentation of right-wing media in video, audio and text.
  • Orcinus
    home of David Neiwert, freelance investigative journalist and author who writes extensively about far-right hate groups
  • Hominid Views
    "People, politics, science, and whatnot" Darryl is a statistician who fights imperialism with empiricism, gives good links and wry commentary.
  • Jesus' General
    An 11 on the Manly Scale of Absolute Gender, a 12 on the Heavenly Scale of the 10 Commandments and a 6 on the earthly scale of the Immaculately Groomed.
  • Howie in Seattle
    Howie Martin is the Abe Linkin' of progressive Seattle.
  • Streaming Radio Guide
    Hellishly long (5795!) list of radio streaming, steaming on the Internets.
  • The Naked Loon
    News satire -- The Onion in the Seattle petunia patch.
  • Irrational Public Radio
    "informs, challenges, soothes and/or berates, and does so with a pleasing vocal cadence and unmatched enunciation. When you listen to IPR, integrity washes over you like lava, with the pleasing familiarity of a medium-roast coffee and a sensible muffin."
  • The Maddow Blog
    Here's the hyper-interactive La Raych of MSNBC. daily show-vids, freakishly geeky research, and classy graphics.
  • Northwest Broadcasters
    The AM, FM, TV and digital broadcasters of Northwest Washington, USA and Southwest British Columbia, Canada. From Kelso, WA to the northern tip of Vancouver Island, BC - call letters, formats, slogans, networks, technical data, and transmitter maps. Plus "recent" news.
  • News Corpse
    The Internet's chronicle of media decay.
  • The Moderate Voice
    The voice of reason in the age of Obama, and the politics of the far-middle.
  • News Hounds
    Dogged dogging of Fox News by a team who seems to watch every minute of the cable channel so you don't have to.
  • HistoryLink
    Fun to read and free encyclopedia of Washington State history. Founded by the late Walt Crowley, it's an indispensable tool and entertainment source for history wonks and surfers alike.

right-wing blogs we like

  • The Reagan Wing
    Hearin lies the real heart of Washington State Republicans. Doug Parris runs this red-meat social conservative group site which bars no holds when it comes to saying who they are and who they're not; what they believe and what they don't; who their friends are and where the rest of the Republicans can go. Well-written, and flaming.
  • Orbusmax
    inexhaustible Drudgery of NW conservative news
  • The Radio Equalizer
    prolific former Seattle KVI, KIRO talk host speaks authoritatively about radio.
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« Thursday open thread | Main | Odds and Ends: KGY updates programming, President social media outreach, Rush Limbaugh Movie? »

November 03, 2012

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Hedge Fund Hal

what the Hell is Bill Clinton doing speechifying for Obama this weekend in "safe", "Obama country" Pennsylvania? Nate?....bewhahahahahahahh

Hedge Fund Hal

my bad my bad....the ABC News Washington Post Poll from this morning is tied at 48/48 not 46/46 . Still not good for Obama at this very late date. 3 percent undecided 1 percent third party, im guessing. 80%x3 =2.4. 50.4/48.6. Ohio vote traditionally runs one point behind the Dem national numbers. 47.6 wont win Ohio.

Hedge Fund Hal

Silver is predicting a landslide for Obama. I guess i stand corrected on his accuracy for the 2008 prez election, but that does not mean he's right this year. He is clearly wrong- landslide for Obama has zero credibility. nada zip zilch, He' not being taken seriously by any major media , he's being treated as an outlier, and a curiosity, albeit not with the contempt that i have for him.

Walt

On undecided voters: "To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?” (Romney)

To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

I mean, really, what’s to be confused about?"—David Sedaris, “Undecided”

RobK1967

Hedge Fund Hal, how much are the Koch Brothers paying you to peddle their lies? Or are you in fact one of the antiAmerican Koch Brothers?

Mr. Throckmorton  (HFH)

all good. final Gallup numbers shows Obam maintaining a lead, a reduced lead but a 49/48 lead over Obama among likely voters . 80% of the 2 percent undecideds (one percent allowance for third party) will break for the challenger at this late a date. that makes it 50.6 versus 48.4. The number for Romney will be bigger because of th following ...1. last minute defections to the challenger from the Obama column 2. higher repub turnout than the number used for the polling model. ........all good...

Mr. Throckmorton  (HFH)

make that Romney maintains a lead , not"Obam".....my bad....

RobK1967

Nice of you to tout that debunked stat that 80% of undecideds break to the challenger, no doubt you pulled that directly from the Koch Brothers' asses

Preston

I'm waiting for the tommy female persona to emerge, maybe Wed morning

Mr. Throckmorton  (HFH)

all good RobK ... Pennsylvania,Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Colrado, "the best revenge"comment, all falling into place...Houston we have liftoff.... bwahaahahahahaha

Finis Hominis

Thomas, looks like some republicans don’t share your enthusiasm for a Rmoney win.
Linda McMahon Doorhanger: Vote For Obama … And Me

RobK1967

I love when the radical right tries to make an issue of a non issue, exactly what do you thugs have an issue with the revenge comment? Did your handlers even tell you why to regurgitate that lame talking point?

sparky

National polls mean nothing. We dont vote nationally, we vote by state. The state polls are the ones to watch.

sparky

Coiler is spot on...and his information has just been updated.

The New York Times' Nate Silver, who correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, has given President Obama an 86% chance to win in 2012, per his latest calculation.

This is a big jump from only two weeks ago when President Obama had a 73% chance of winning.

Some Republicans are already suggesting that Hurricane Sandy and President Obama's fast action during the emergency is to blame for a potential Mitt Romney defeat.

As of November 5, Silver says that President Obama has an 86% chance of winning, while GOP challenger Mitt Romney has a 13% chance. Silver predicts 307 electoral votes for Obama, and 230 for Romney. The popular vote is much closer, with Obama at 50% and Romney at 48%.

The only swing vote state that Silver has Romney leading in several polls is North Carolina. Other swing states are either tied or led by Obama in multiple polls.

Mr. Throckmorton  (HFH)

the only people that ever quote Silver and his crackpot numbers, crackpot for 2012 at least, are groups like the Hopey Changey Club members like you .... pockets of radical extreme libs and Dems in various urban areas across the country.. .the serious major media hardly ever even mentions him.....he's saying what you want to hear, not what the reality is.....you really want to hang your hat on this guy? club members? hes setting you up for a cruel dash of reality come tomorrow night. as Bill O'Reilly says, "I'm looking out for you". bwaaaahahahahahahahahaah

Hedge Fund Hal

Wiseguy, explain why the dem voters of Ohio would want and need to exact their "revenge" on Mitt Romney? Because he's a white man? Because he is wealthy? your dear leader cantjust throw a comment like that out there and skedaddle away from it. Since he hasn't explianed it yet, its up to you to explain why he used the word "revenge". hahahaha Dude screwed up bigtime with this asinine comment. They pleaded with him to never go off the teleprompter. Now hes messed up, bigtime,and Its not going away. as for Sparky's post , there'a a university of colorado professor who called the race for Romney weeks ago, using his propietary, unique modelling that has given him correct Presidential elction results going back i believe to 1980. He says for Romney to lose his numbers would have to off by double. I could trot this guy with his Romney victory numbers out here every day, the same way you guys do Silver an dhis numbers, an dhave a big pointless pissing match, but ive only mentioned him here once. I stick with the major players in polling and analysis- the boys in the big leagues. No one takes your guy Silver seriously.

Finis Hominis

Great post over on Buzzfeed.
Inside Intrade's Political Market

The anonymous author is 29, a professional poker player, and one of the most active traders on the real-money prediction website. He's got six figures at risk this cycle.

It’s got the Intraders wondering who spilled the beans.
Finis Hominis

Hal,
I seen the U Of Colorado, Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry story, and their claim that they produced an new model that predicted the outcomes of previous elections back to 1980…imagine that, a new model which

retroactively

spits out the prediction ex post facto. Can you say “data dredging”? Also, these clowns are listed in opensecrets.org as donors to, guess who? I hear next on their to do list is to invent the phone.

Hedge Fund Hal

if the controls are in place, so that the exact same sets of data that were loaded into the computer for the studies of the historical elections as for that of the one yet to be, there's no problem with the study. A neurtal third party could easily theck their results by repeating the experiments and loading the data themselves, then checking their findings against the professor's..

Hedge Fund Hal

if the elctions were studied retroactively, not predicted, because you cant predict an historicel election , then it sounds like they studied these elections and discovered certain statistical benchmarks were always in place whenever the incumbent lost. From what i heard the professor say, he doesnt use polls , he uses mainly economic data, in terms of the feelings of the voters about the state of the economy economy and maybe some other data i don't remember. He apparently discovered that whenever benchmarks A ,B,C and D , or maybe more , or less, had all been reached together in terms of public sentiment within a certain time frame before the election date of the particular presidential year , the incumbent was always booted out, going back to 1980. The way i interpret it, oversimplistic though it may be, he's saying all these benchmarks of public sentiment have been reached now, just before the 2012 election and the incumbent will lose.

Finis Hominis

These are not poll aggregators, they are statisticians.
Princeton Election Consortium
Obama: 309 Romney: 229

Election Projection
Obama 303 Romney 235

538
Obama 315.2 Romney 222.8

In case you don’t know, Election Projection is a right wing statistician. But if you need a pacifier here’s UnSkewed polls. I don’t know what they are predicting tonight but it seems to comfort rightwing extremist.

Hedge Fund Hal

hahaahahaha give it up Finis....

Finis Hominis

what's that hal?

T-S

if the controls are in place,

Ifififififififififif . . . that's why Obama will win hands down. These righties who are the victims of "if" factors and wishful thinking will be disappointed on November 7.

I did vote for Stein knowing that blue Washington would never go for Romney. They might for McKenna but never Romney. Even the reds in Washington know Romney's a loser. Well, the smart ones anyway.

Observer

NEWS FLASH!!!
It's OVER, our President maintains office for another four years. Mittens hangs up his political aspirations and wishes Obama and the country well.

You heard it here first.

nameless

hmmm...no Hal? Today is the day for a real poll count. the other syuff was just pissing in the wind.

Hedge Fund Hal

final rasmussen numbers as of this morning........Romney 49%/Obama48%.......how pathetic..your guy cant even break 47-48 percent in gallup or rasmussen...never led in either poll after the first debate.....how proud you must be........polls don't measure intensity....... 2700 people at the rallies for Obama in ohio versus 30000 for Romney.....Obamas big finale in Ohio with JZ and Springsteen filled a 20000 seat arena to a whopping 60% full. And the polls are modelling for an even or higher than 2008 dem turnout. even dems on obamas team dont believe that will happen, alhtough they'll never admit in public.....enjoy your delusional sense of victory, inspired by bogus polls for at least a few more hours Club Hopey Changey members.......bbwhahahahahaah

Preston

People waiting in line 9 hours in Florida, they sure as hell weren't waiting that long to vote for a rich white guy

Hedge Fund Hal

'RICH WHITE GUY" ..thanks preston for revealing what your guy's campaign is all about- race card and class envy....it isn't workng....."in line 9 hours"...you don't think the fear and loathing of Obama is that strong that people would wait....again, you guys aer living in a dream world.......ok its already electoin day and i can now say that not one of hte club members here could be a big enough and honest enough person to admit that either candidate could lose this race, as i have several times...this proves im dealing with something quite similar to cult members here.....

Preston

'electoin' day, does you electoin last 9 hours?

Hedge Fund Hal

on that note- i'm outa here....for at least a week or so.. there will be no gloating after the Romney victory from this reporter. none. That would be cruel. that's way too similar to the meanness and smallness of heart and spirit i see in the club members here. let this be a lesson to you , club members- don't ever again blindly put your support in some sketchy character like Obama.

Preston

Oh bullshit, you like Trump never face the truth after a good beating

nameless

" i'm outa here....for at least a week or so.."
------------------------------------------------------
Posted by: Hedge Fund Hal | November 06, 2012 at 08:25 AM

Oh Thomas, you'll find another topic... You'll find a new name, then the trolling will begin. You may have pulled more attention if you understood hyperbole. Oh well, good luck next time.

Chucks

I just spent the past two weeks in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania. It was interesting at the very least.
I didn't leave feeling that we had this in the bag but there are no feelings of doom either. I guess the best I can take away from all of the contacts were the people that voted for Obama that will not vote for him again.
The funniest was an old black woman that loved Obama but wouldn't vote for him because of his support for those "sinful queers" getting married (to each other). Of course, in a lapse of ethics, I didn't tell her that queer marriage was on the ballot here and that I voted in support of it. LOL, I just gave her a hug and prommised that Mitt was going to make things better for all of us.
We'll see tonight (or tomorrow, or a month from now when the lawyers are done).

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