Outlook for radio is depressing, according to expert

"Radio listenership is actually declining faster than analysts, investors and journalists thought ... "

In a new report on the state of radio, a radio business analyst is yelling fire!

What's more: He says industry CEOs are kicking back and grooving to easy listening while sharks circle, piranhas swirl, and grave diggers sling shovels of dirt out of the grave-hole of radio. (sorry about that string of hackneyed and poor metaphors: I just ate a few too many jelly donuts).

James Boyle is vice president and senior analyst for CL King & Associates, a New York investment research firm. He's a money guy who's shucked the emotional meta-rada about radio that does little more than puts lipstick on the pig. (god, there I go again... burp)

"Too many of us have for too long kidded ourselves that the radio sector was, is or is soon to be poised for a marked upturn," Boyle says in his report.

He told the Business Journal:

"Why should the plunge radio stocks have taken over the last 30 months reverse itself when the industry's prospects haven't brightened sufficiently," Boyle notes in his report. "All the trends are weak to disappointing, if not downright depressing -- and this is from an analyst whose family has been in radio for 50 years ... ."

A big red flag is the accelerating erosion in listenership. And for some reason, the erosion has been faster with women, which goes against conventional wisdom.

"Radio listenership is actually declining faster than analysts, investors and journalists thought ... ," Boyle contends.

(photo: Ruth)

"This is not a good trend," he says.

Radio's latest quarterly ratings book, according to Boyle, reported the worst year-over-year drop in the last 10 years, with listenership down nearly 3 percent.

He says radio has some real issues ahead.

And we'd have to add a hearty, and well-considered, "No shit."

Comments

[AuthenticAndrew]

Radio is Vaudeville. Vaudeville was a variety format that was usurped by new, convenient technologies. Radio is a variety format that is being usurped by new, convenient technologies.

When compared to the alternative, radio stations are a niche at best, absurd at worst. You listen to music you might not necessarily like, you hear the same few songs over and over whether it be 50's, 70's or 00's genres and you're rewarded for this punishment with awful annoying commercials.

iPods have no commercials, are completely custom and hold many thoasands of songs more than a CD book. XM has many many more channels, sounds better and has few if any commercials. Cars are comming stock with aux inputs, mp3, XM and iPod integration. This is like a concerted multi-industry wide effort to piss all over radio, an industry which itself barely makes ends meet as it is.

Coming out of the payola scandals which I'm convinced continue to this day I can't say I'm sad to see radio die. At the time when DJ's had the public buy the balls they force fed us shitty art in exchange for fake jewelry and gift certificates - and it was no here and there; industry fucking wide.

Another interesting thing, which is only bound to get worse between now and the final flat line, is how horribly un-entertaining radio commercials are. I never understood when radio stations didn't require that advertisers submit commercials that don't make listeners vomit, but they didn't and now that radio is begging for ad revenue any restriction they migth have had will now be impossible. Radio commercials are bound to become all the more insufferable in the near future. KIRO's Catlin Capitol ads already drive me nuts. Atleast now we know all of the host's souls have price tags.

[RobP]

I always love reading these "radio is dead" articles and posts on the web.

Why?

Because if you look back at history - every time someone said "radio is dead" - the medium reinvented itself and became stronger.

And it will do the same thing against the challenge from the iPod and other alternative entertainment sources.

Bet on it.

[Duffman]

Amen...you may have to change your heading to 'BlatherWatch listening to talk radio because you don't want to'
Lo siento mucho...

[mark]

too many ads.

[fordman]

"too many ads."

Really? Perhaps you've forgotten Christmas, during radio's "good days", when most commercial schedules were limited by the FCC's 18 minute rule. I forget. Weren't we able to go 21 minutes during political season?

Now, that was great radio. One commercial for every 2 minutes of fine, listener-attracting entertainment; huge, enthusiastic audiences and no snarky blogs! :)

[Tomy008]

Speaking of depressing radio, did you notice that KIRO bratboy and precious prima donna of the afternoon Dori Monson must get a week off before his exhausting duties next week in Denver? Funny, Kirby and Dave both pulled their full week of shifts this week and are both going to Denver to perform the same or more amounts of airtime next week. What a pampered little puss.

[Nope to Obama]

I told you guys it was the plaigirist Biden!

[HR]

Dori is not even showing up in Denver until Tuesday. Boy does he kiss someboady's ass at KIRO!

[HR]

Do you think that the Obama campaign considered the "negatives" with regard to the VP nominee Chet Edwards? Think of all the dumb asses that would see the bumper sticker Obama-Edwards and think of John Edwards!

[Duffman]

Your predictions are obviously no better than your spelling.
'plagiarist' dude!

[Duffman]

Dori has a very full work schedule (more so than his peers, with 'Hawk duties, etc) and when you're the King of Seattle-Area radio you deserve certain 'perks'...more power to him! Jealousy prevails...

[HR]

"Dori has a very full work schedule"

...Ok let's go over this:
1. 3 hours per day=15 hours
-Phil does all the show prep

2. Seahawks Broadcast= 2 hours pregame & post game at 4 hours per game x 16 games= 64 hours

3. 3 months vacation per year + holidays

Dori works= 15 hours x 34 weeks + 64 hours = 574 hours per year (approx. 24 days)

Average worker 44 hours x 50 weeks = 2,200 hours per year (approx. 92 days)

Who's the hard worker? The guy is off everytime I turn the radio on.

[Duffman]

...and do you suppose he does any prep work?...he IS King you know!

[HR]

As I said Phil does all the prep work.

I forgot to mention:

Dori at 574 hours/year and $450,000 = $783/hour

Average Worker at 2200 hours/year and $32,000 = $14.50/hour

[Duffman]

P-A-L-E....in comparison to Limbaugh...and most B/Ball players...and like I said, HE's the KING!

[barooosk]

There is no doubt that performance of the radio industry and radio stocks are continuing to decline. However, did you realize that your are citing a report that was released in August of 2006!

[orcas]

If the outlook for radio is grim, just imagine how bleak the future is for those who blog about radio.

[KS]

The rumors about the demise of radio are greatly exaggerated here. Newspapers are another thing.
How about a report on their demise ?

It was a good AGM (attention getting mechanism) though.

[nevets]

I thought B'lam was going on a short vacation. I seen a thread last night that said he would be blogging lightly. Two threads in on day. Thats not lite.

Chucks, I have said before that I have been thinking of getting a Camping trailer. I've been looking at this 21 foot Jayco model 218. The Dealer wants $21,000. Its loaded, A/C, heater, stove, Microwave, etc.. Is this a good deal? How much should I counter? Thanks for any help you can provide.

[Tommy008]

Savage is a must hear tonight. He has been reading from the prosecutor's report about Bernie Ward and his justifications for asking for 9 years in federal prison for him. This isn't about Ward making an isolated mistake. They found over 100 images he'd downloaded of kids from 2 or 3 to 9 years old of an extremely evil and depraved nature, involving physical and sexual abuse, children bound and gagged, so forth. He also sent 10 or more of these images to others. The peosecutor called the 'just researcing a book" excuse Ward is clinging to just what it is- a crock of crap. He's asking that the judge actually view the images before passing sentence. I think Ward is going to get more than 5 years.

[chuck]

Steven
Give me a call tomorrow between noon and 4:00 at 206-550-4765.
I will get more info from you and help you out, if I can. I am pretty sure you will be pleased.

[nevets]

"Tribe, City Meet With Dicks on Boardwalk — but No Breakthroughs"

This a headline from the Kitsap Sun. I think someone forgot the vaseline.

[nevets]

Thanks, I'll try to call chucks, but the wife wants to hit the Beaches tomorrow. She loves looking for everything from sand dollars to agates. I know the dogs will definitly like it but I usually get tired after about an hour for two.

[nevets]

A little humor to start your weekend

A man goes into an emergency room with two black eyes and a five iron wrapped tightly around his neck, of course the doctor asks what happened to him.

"Well, it pretty much goes like this," said the man. "I was having a quiet round of golf with my dear wife, when she sliced her ball into a pasture of cows."

..."and we went to look for it, and while I was rooting around I noticed one of the cows had something white at its rear end. I walked over and lifted up the tail, and sure enough, there was my wife's golf ball....stuck right in the middle of the cow's butt. That's when I made my mistake."

"What did you do?" asks the doctor.

"Well, I lifted the tail and yelled to my wife, 'Holy cow, Joanie, this looks like yours!'"

[good king]

Dori makes $450K? Are you serious? I thought maybe $150K. What's up with that?

[HoBo]

Demize of radio?
How about the demize of
TV come Feb. 18, 2009 !

[joanie]

Ditto: too many commercials and too many REPETITIVE commercials! Esp. on 1090!

Anyone notice the demise of radio seems to coincide with the increase of right-wing talk radio?

[joanie]

I'm personally pissed about that,HoBo. But, in Seattle, I've still got my antenna up on the roof. I think that's good - right?

[sparky]

joanie you will need a converter box..after February 18 you wont get an analog antenna signal anymore.

[joanie]

I think even with a converter box you need an antenna. I watched Enrique give a little tutorial about it on channel 9 a week ago. That's what I thought I heard. I'll have to listen or look again to be sure.

How much are HD TVs now?