Rachel Maddow: "McCain will win."

"McCain is going to win. ... Unless something really drastic happens on the Democratic side, I think McCain sails to a big 51% win."

Rachel Maddow (KPTK m-f, 3-5p ) is not optimistic about Democrats in November. She spoke with BlatherWatch Tuesday.

She says it's a matter of Democrats' "campaign malpractice."
                     
"[McCain) will enthusiastically embrace not only Bush -- but Cheney, and run as a bellicose, warmongering adult. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have firmly established themselves in the mind of the electorate as squabbling kids who don't deserve the office."

The Air America Talk host and MSNBC analyst admits being a cynic about elections; and November's a long way off, but, she says, "John McCain has had a long career being tongue-kissed by the press, and there's no signs of that abating. The stuff he's getting a free ride on are unconscionable.  [The Democrats] are letting John McCain win -- it's campaign malpractice."  

We talked to Maddow directly after Obama's big  defensive speech on race.

Did the speech help him? It was too early to know when we spoke, but Maddow says, "It aimed high, that's great." Despite it was a difficult topic that makes people uncomfortable, he resisted, she says, "making a Mitt Romney lowest common denominator pablum speech."

He said America is still segregated in a number of ways, says Maddow. "White people and black people say things in their own communities they don't say to each other. And there's a whole lot of anger on both sides and the anger is understandable. That's got us into this rut -- this racially divided rut we can't get out of if we keep talking about it in the same old way."

It was ambitious, she says. But by presenting a nuanced view of race, and not pandering, or patronizing, he asked a lot of the American people.

We wondered if the speech effective with average voters? Maddow asks, "Are we really as capable of absorbing the nuance, complexity and difficult truths as this speech implies Obama thinks we are?"

Obama's negatives were over 50% for the first time in the polls after his pastor problems emerged. Maddow: "If he's able to tamp that down, or bring his positives back up again to counteract those negatives I guess we'll see it."

But, she says, this train wreck could have been avoided. "This is worth talking about as a political blunder. Just in terms of the Obama campaign not having adequately inoculated against this controversy... because they knew it was coming."

It's amazing to me that this got out though Bryan Ross on ABC News. We know how he got this stuff: the sermons were for sale! If you're running for president, and you know your pastor is controversial, and his sermons are for sale, you better be the one who buys them, not ABC."

While the kiddies are squalling, making new messes and providing fresh footage for Republican attack ads, McCain has "... lobbyists running his campaign; was one of the Keating 5; he's incoherent on everything from the economy to the war, which is his signature issue," says Maddow. "His best friend is Joe Lieberman!"

Although Obama has shown his electability by how well as he's done in the primaries, she says Barack has never demonstrated an ability to survive a contest with a Republican "and all the slime and lies" that go with one.

"Hillary's actively presaging some of that -- she's gone after him in a very Republican way. But he's not doing great at defending himself."

They'll continue as they have now for more than a month more, she says. "John McCain is being romanced by the press and can get away with anything. They won't have an appetite for hitting him that's any stronger than their appetite for hitting each other."

Maddow says there are a million reasons McCain should be beatable, but he now has the power of the Republican electoral machine behind him.

"The Democrats apparently don't have one of those machines, so even if he were Alfred E . Neuman, he wins."   

(photo left: President Neuman)

Comments

[Christian Prophet]

Obama would be better if he didn't want to have his cake and eat it too. It's good he wants us to rise above race and religion. But he's in trouble because of the non-race aspects of his personal THEOLOGY. See:
http://miraclesdaily.blogspot.com/

[Tommy008]

Obama should have waited until 2012 or 2016 to run. there's an unseemly avarice for power about himself and his wife, in mounting this campaign only a couple of years out of the state house which is unprecedented. At least get an election under your belt. He should have stood up to and confronted local preacherman Wright years ago if he is truly disturbed by the man's comments. At least after he was elected to the Senate he should have severed ties with him. Oprah had the conscience to leave his church. Since he is so inexperienced and unqualified, he doesn't yet have the power with the voters to get a majority of delegates, even after being given the headstart of two of Hillary's strongest states being taken off the table. He doesn't have much of a chance of being elected after this Rev. Wright mess and a speech on it that fell far short, and he's mucked up what was supposed to be Hillary's year in a way that probably now insures that Clinton will also lose , due to a great many of his black Dem voters refusing to vote for Hillary.

[Christian gent in Renton]

I agree with Christian Prophet. Mr.Obama's church is not a Christian church, nor is his pastor anything but a cultist. If he is fulfilling the prophecy I think he is, he will be successful.

http://www.barackobamaantichrist.blogspot.com/

[Gay Gary]

If the Democrats need a political machine, they should consult their Sheriff in Duvall County, TX - he'll put one together for 'em!

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/5616332.html

Hey - KIRO has an online survey going right now at mynorthwest.com - everyone should take it!!! Go to "SHOWS" then click "710 KIRO" then click on the link in the yellow band at the top of the page.

Hey 2 - Don O'Neil is on the air right now explaining black culture to us whiteys. At one point he said "you whites don't understand it" before adding this gem: "it's the same way with 'the Hispanics'". "The Hispanics"? Don is starting to remind me of the Klan member from Reno 911! who is having a "t" burning - "t" for tolerance! (I thought KIRO canceled the trailer park truck show?!)

OH well ... R&D, giving you 3!

[Ryder]

I don't get it.

"Some" of you so-called Christians out there are all up in arms about Obama's preacher. Its just horrible the things he says about America. An yet mainstream Catholic and Protestant religions all teach that I am going to burn and be tortured for all eternity because I don't accept Jesus Christ as God.

Now I don't want to hear about how "you're" the exception. You don't really believe what your church teaches. I want you to explain to me how what Obama's preacher has said is any worse than you saying I am going to burn.

Me, I still like rabbits.

[abob]

Maddow is 100% correct. America is looking for the safest candidate in a time of tremendous national uncertainty. Both Hillary and Obama are widely perceived as unstable political wild cards. John McCain will sail to victory in November because voters will choose, in overwhelming numbers, the person who seems closest to their idea of America.

[Duffman]

How can Maddow be 100% correct when what she's saying hasn't come to pass yet? Her opinion is just that; no better no worse than yours or mine. IMO a Democrat will win next time around, period. Obviously I hope that Democrat is Mrs Clinton but regardless, it's SHOW time for the Dems. You would do well to bet on me over Maddow. :)

[AuthenticAndrew]

Rachel Maddow's scenario is only somewhat true if the election were held tomorrow. By the time November comes around this will be water under the bridge.

However Obama is done, because even if he doesn't believe those racist sentiments HIS BEST FRIENDS DO and of course racism is a stain once you get any on your character, it won't soon be forgotton, and as good as his speech might have been it served to validate the underlying concern not quell it. Validation via interest.

If Hillary cleans Obama in the coming primaries and gets the nomination things will get back to normal, no race issues, just a Clinton versus Some Right Wing Nut and I'm happy to note that the Clintons have a winning record.

[chucks]

I really do not care about Obama's preacher. It is more of a concern to me that Obama believes that which his preacher spews.
As for Christians believing that you are going to burn in hell, if they are right, you and I may have fucked up. If they are wrong, well, they didn't hurt me any. They just wasted their whole lives striving to be better people.
You gotta understand one little detail though, Ryder. Obama wants to be leader of the free world. He wants to be my President. President of me and the rest of the white males in this nation. If you think that we are such evil shits, then do not count on our votes.
I had rabbit on Sunday. Slowly grilled on a low flame with Jack Daniels BBQ sauce. It was yummy.

[AuthenticAndrew]

It's tragic that we have an oppurtunity to elect the first black president and it turns the guy is a parishioner of the black equivelent of the KKK. This was supposed to be proof that racism has lost influence over the country and instead it has done the opposite, and has given everyone a renewed *and legitimate* cause for concern.

I think Barack shot himself in the foot twice, first obviously by not addressing it sooner and abandoning the church as everyone has already said, but by comparing the pastor TO AN UNCLE!?! he should have likened him to a FRUIT LOOP! not someday with whom you have a blood relation.

[sparky]

I love Rachel and her show, but in October of 2006, she was moaning that there was Absolutely No Way the Dems would gain a lot of seats in Congress. We know how that turned out. She is smart in many ways, but calling elections is not her forte.

[chucks]

Dang, I hate it when sparky uses common sense on us.

[sparky]

Oh yes, today John McCain made the serious announcement that it was Well Known that the Iranians were taking Al-Quesadia operatives and training them to go back to Iraq to fight. Well Known And Unfortunate.

His butt-buddy Joe Lieberman had to whisper in his ear :"uh...they are training extremists,not Al-Quesadias."

John looked at the camera, and in his best Emily Latella voice said:

" I meant extremists. ."

"Nevermiiiind!!"

[DMT]

Think about it. This country will not vote for that black kid over the grizzled old war hero.

[Gay Gary]

I'd just like to say that this blog is pretty much the only decent radio journalism in Seattle, or possibly anywhere. An actual interview (not reprints of interviews or regurgitated press releases) with Rachel Maddow and John Carlson all in under a week? Kudos.

Oculus Bleu is a PR flack and they don't give the time of day to blogs. I don't know if that's par for the course among PR types but, if it is, it is a double commendation for this blog that it is generating a large volume of actual new and original content on a voluntary basis and in the face of being treated like a second-class citizen (if, indeed, it is being so treated, I don't know).

[Jerry M.]

As usual, Obama gave a good speech but didn't say anything to me.

[wutitiz]

I have to agree with Sparky. There is way too much time 'till Novemember to predict. Who knows what dirt the NYT will dig up on McCain. We are in the 10th mile of a marathon, and McCain has a couple hunnert yard lead on Hill and Baracka. 16.2 miles left.

It is certainly looking bad for Obama. Obama had two major assets. One, his prowess at oratory, and two, his promise of healing the racial divide. Even an ultraconservative such as myself pondered whether It might be worth voting for a lib such as Obama if he could bring major progress on race--maybe the greatest progress since MLK. That is all in tatters now.

[nevets]

"CHANGE"

If you didn't see it the first time I posted it, you might want to read it again and compare it to Obama's speech today.

"CHANGE"

[nevets]

A few exerpts from Obama's speech which I thought were interested as what Rev. Wright meant to him.

"The man I met more than twenty years ago is a man who helped introduce me to my Christian faith"

"But I have asserted a firm conviction – a conviction rooted in my faith in God and my faith in the American people – that working together we can move beyond some of our old racial wounds"

"He strengthened my faith"

And how can I forget this message at the end of this part.

"I can tell you that in the next election, we’ll be talking about some other distraction. And then another one. And then another one. And nothing will "CHANGE."

[Rick]

I tend to agree with Rachel. I will vote for the democrat who wins the nomination-no way can I vote for the party who is responsible for this economy and the Iraq war was absolutly the wrong thing to do in the first place. This is a problem for many republicans also. And when John McCain is elected to the presidency it will continue the perfect shit storm for the republicans. I think the democrats will gain a veto proof majority in the senate and will greatly expand their seats in the house. The democrats will make McCain look like the proverbial deer in the headlights with investigations into the actions of Bush, Cheney and the republican controlled Senate prior to '06. McCain will be a mere figurehead for the misguided policies of conservative thought for the last 30 years. In 2012 the democrats will expand their influence to an even greater extant and will control all branches of government for a couple decades..

[Tommy008]

Obama's speech was wooden and selfserving, with that spirit of pridefulness he has which turns people off. As well as the way he peers around and down at his crowds with thst air of condescension. I don't think he has any feeling for white people who were hurt by the nasty old bastard preacher's remaek. he has no concept of white people having feelings- i think he thinks only blacks have feelings that can be hurt. He sees blacks as permanent victims and "real people" and whites as a gray mass of nonfeeling statues made out of concrete. The only feelings that count are those of black people. I doubt he's ever had a white close friend. He's simply not capable of it.

[wutitiz]

A few years ago, pre-W. Bush, there was a book called 'The Emerging Democratic Majority' or somesuch by a Rudy Teixeira and John Judis. Not too long after the book emerged, R's took control of the Senate, WH, and House.

I think it was around that time that Karl Rove was expansively predicted a long-term Republican lock on national politics. In short order, the Dems took back the House and Senate, and Rove had to retire. Call it the crystal-ball-bounce.

[KS]

I think Rachael has it correct. It is unhealthy for a nation not to have a balance of power. We saw that in Clinton's first term and 2/3 of Bush's tenure. The Dems will likely retain both houses of congress. I believe most people can understand why this is.

Since the Dems have taken over Congress, there has been a better check on policies of the Bush Administration, just as the Republicans had a better check on the Clintons back in the 90's and their fiscal conservatism contributed to the healthy economy going well - up until the last year, when the dot. bomb boom set in. Come to think of it - there is a parallel with economic slippage in the last year of Bush, just as was the case in the last year of Clinton.

[KS]

Revised comment - Rachael would seem correct if the election were held next week, but that is not the case. Alot can happen and no doubt that it will before November. Obama's speech seemed hollow, but his supporters loved it. The Clintons are spinning something new every day and maintain the slash and burn approach - they are the ultimate narcissists - be warned.

My only prediction is whoever is elected President in 2008 will be a one-term President.

[joanie hussein for Obama]

state house which is unprecedented.

Bush was a ceremonial governor only. How long was Kennedy in the Senate?

I think that the speech he gave will serve him well over time. Somehow I still think most Americans are sick and tired of the corruption of this administration. They will figure it out. Especially if the economy continues to go in the dumpster. You know, bread and butter issues trump silly things like preachers and sermons in the end.

We'll see. Maybe I have more faith in the American people - even ignorant ones - than you do.

And an older Black man hating America? Where have you people been? I'd be surprised if they didn't. I seem to recall a Black man being dragged behind a truck . . . umm, how many years ago was that?

An awful lot of hate spewed above. What's the difference?

[joanie hussein for Obama]

Oh, and Michael, nice interview. Maybe Rachel will give you an on-air plug. Wouldn't that be nice?

She's smart but young. Sparky's right. And you were right about Hillary. She has to give Obama a taste of what's coming. She's doing us all a favor. I'm seeing that in a new light. Get it out now and let Obama move on when he gets to McCain. By then, this stuff will be old news.

[J.Hova]

It is because America does not like the angry, black man who is not 'kept in his place'. Not many people have gone into inner city churches over the last 40 years or so but the media saw fit to suddenly discover the anger. They thought the Cosby show, showed a typical black family and they had assimilated into the rest of the country.

[joanie hussein for Obama]

I don't think so. I think Tommy's view is what most people believe. Criminals and pimps. Americans love to hate. They bond in negativity and put-downs. And they must have a sense of superiority. America's not doing so well and it is hard to realize we may not be the best in the world.

Didn't you read how chuckles and the rest were orgasmic in their ridicule and mockery?

People like them just love to hate. I hope that most of us are different. I'm betting most of us are.

I don't think anybody thought Cosby represented reality. If Cosby represented reality, Americans would hate Blacks even more for having more than them.

Isn't that what happened in Nazi Germany with the Jews? Look what a house painter was able to do with resentment like that?

[joanie hussein for Obama]

Oh, and J'hova, feels good having the Big Guy on my side.

[Jobim]

I think RAchel is just trying to wake people up. The Dems had better do something, McCain is getting away with murder.

[J.Hova]

People want an easy answer without any intelligent thought or discourse. They are demeaned by the lack of representation and being lied to by their elected officials and become withdrawn, ill tempered and prone to fits of faux outrage.

[Tommy008]

oh hate, hate, shmate,Lou Pate, nbait everything's hate to seattle libs when someone dares question a black man who they perceive to be a phony or a bad person. Blacks will never be equal to whites in this country until an individual black can be criticized as energetically as various white public figures are without a bunch of lib lemmings mewling and puking about hate. Obama slyly put those lines into his speech about his Grandma, right after talking about Wright, in order to put his Grandma and Wright on the same level. He legitimized that foul fellow, instead of marginalizing him, which is what you do with a virulent racist. ohhh, he's just like my grandmother- both flawed people. Apples and oranges suddenly become two boxes of oranges. magic. I don't like people whose minds work in such a sly manipulative way. So sue me. I took the gestalt test today after Obama's speech and realized that what I've learned about him recently isn't very pretty and i actually don't like the man very much at all. I DON'T LIKE HIM. so sue me. I don't like Simon Cowell on American Idol, or Brit Hume, or Rush Limbaugh. Or Barack Obama. So sue me. Tough.

[joanie hussein for Obama]

Ah, you are kinder than I. I think barbarianism is primitive and natural. Takes work to be civilized.

True, people want it to be easy. But, we've been spoiled in this resource-rich country where there was enough for everyone for such a long, long time. We are going through our terrible twos. We are that young. I fear it will get worse before it gets better.

Our corrupt elected officials are the representative of a corrupt society.

[J.Hova]

Tommy, i would get out of the day trading, it is only making you insane and no one likes to see a Gordo Gecko wannabe lose it on the Internets.

[Tommy008]

hhaahaah "you're losing it" Gekko wannabe" how do you type with your hood on","racist jerk" all you people can offer is ad hominems as i make point after point based on substance. Pathetic.

[nevets]

And to think the economy started to tank after the Liberals got control of the House and Senate. Will wonders ever cease.

Other countries are worried people. Worried that the Liberals will win the Presidency and control both Houses of Congress. With this control of the governemt they could effectivly isolate us from the rest of the world while they bring Socialism to our shores. If you thought WWII was bad, this isolation will bring a global economic meltdown which will trigger wars (Which I will have to fight) far exceeding anything we have seen in the last 200 years. These new Pergressive Liberals are no FDR, Truman, Kennedy, or even Johnson. They are in the mold of Carter and Clinton and we have seen how much our military deteriated under them. (Soldiers in Iraq having to scrounge scrap metal to bolster thier vehicles defenses) With this deteriation of our military at the hands of either Obama or Hillary, to quote Zeb Miller at the 2004 GOP convention, "how will we fight the enemy, with spit balls." Lets all hope Maddow is finally right for once and see to it that this country remains the best contry this world has ever seen.

[wutitiz]

Democrats have long tolerated a strain of racism represented by the Rev. Wrights and Sharptons. It was tolerated, because Dems were making off with 90% of the black vote.

If Obama had been a conservative black Republican, he would have long ago had to sever ties with Wright or take political heat. Or, if he had been a white Republican with a white pastor spewing anti-black claptrap, he'd have been politically finished no matter what.

Obama, because of the Democrats tolerance for the Wrights and Sharptons. felt no such pressure and stayed w/ Wright for 20 yrs.

Dems have tolerated a strain of bigotry and an entirely dysfunctional way of looking at race issues, in which false accusations of racism are used as a partisan bludgeon. The current mess is nothing more than said tolerance coming back with a vicious bite to the Dem Ass.

[AuthenticAndrew]

It's funny how conservatives find the most perverse ways of blaming EVERYTHING on liberals. nevets blames the current Dem congress for the economy lolz. wutziz blames the Dems for black racists. Fucking hilarious. I blame you for the Iraq War and the last seven years of Administration policy, live that up you bitches.

[wutitiz]

"Blacks will never be equal to whites in this country until an individual black can be criticized as energetically as various white public figures are without a bunch of lib lemmings mewling and puking..."

--Tommy008

A brilliant point. And by the same token, blacks will never be equal until an old black bigot like Wright feels the same compunction, social pressure, and need to reform as an old white bigot like a Strom Thurmond.

It is no longer conservatives who block the way to equality--it's liberals.

[Ginger]

Wright, Sharpton, Bush, Gingrich, Clinton, Nader, Jagger, and all will die off just like Thurmond did. Can't you morons see this for what it really is? It's generational!
The sooner the Boomers and what's left of their parents shuffle off, the better.

[wutitiz]

MaryAnn is 69, so that would make Ginger what, about 75?

[wutitiz]

Andrew, as someone who voted for Bush twice, I would certainly accept my little slice of blame for the many failures of execution in Iraq. And I recall other conservatives on this site, from PugetSound to Chucks admitting the failures. The primary architect of the failures, SecDef Rumsfeld is gone.

Although you are a rare exception, I don't see too many lefties who have come to terms with the failed strategies re race. Namely, dividing America into 'white' and 'people of color,' and accusing conservatives of racism with zero evidence (e.g. Kanye West's celebrated remarks about Bush), and tolerating bigotry like Wright's, as long as it emanated from left of center.

[Duffman]

Wow whatitis...have you been up all nite? Good morning. As Sparky said Rachel doesn't handicap political elections well. :)

[wutitiz]

Yes, Duff, I have been. I've been looking at various sites and watching the news. I always avoid predictions, but the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that Obama is done.

I know you won't shed tears, and neither will I, but it is still unfortunate. Nobody can deny that we need MLK Act II in our great nation, and that was the promise of Obama, and I think 95% of the source of his appeal.

[PugetSound]

Wuttitiz really does live up to his name. He is spot on!
As someone who looked favorably upon Obama I am soooo disappointed that he didn't object or make known with his feet his feelings towards Rev Wright. That tells me a lot about his character.

Can Obama get past it? Yes, but he will have to do more than what he has done to date.
The irony is that he had run a brilliant campaign and toppled the one with all the institutional advantages, Hillary Clinton.

Right now, IF Hillary and Barrack both had the interests of the DEMOCRATIC Party at heart they would 1) heal the rift between the two of them 2) determine which of them has the better chance of beating McCain and decide that now! 3) the other one would stop campaigning for themself (or 2012) and campaign in earnest for the Dem Nominee. Both of them brag about being able to work across the aisle so lets see a little of that within their own party.

Rest assured that is unlikely to happen. Hillary and Barrack will continue to wail away at each other as the Dem Party fractures between the Terry McCaullauf and Howard Dean wings. McCain will continue to gain strength and the Dems stand a good chance to lose yet another election that they could have run. Oh sure, you will hear the excuses such as 'selected not elected' or 'the machines' (ironically you don't hear complaints about 'the machines' when Dems won in 2006).
But truth be told with a sputtering economy and an unpopular war the Dems have this election to lose. And they may well do it. Can't run an election unlikely to be able to run the country.

[Tommy008]

it was curious listening to talk radio last night. A lot of the hosts, at least not the extremists, were saying that Obama made a great spech whereas most of the callers weren't satisied with it. Seems to be a disconnect there. Obama should have handled the Wright problem with a separate press conference before the big speech on race. THE TWO DIDN'T BELONG TOGETHER. Wright has nothing to do with the broad theme of race- he's an abberration , a foul fellow that needed to be sternly dealt with. By making a few throwaway lines of disapproval toward Wright, then including him in his broad race theme speech and falsely comparing him with with his grandmother, he dissed and trivialized the feelings of those who were hurt and angered by the revelations of Wright's hateful speeches. the old "grandmother trick" was particularly slick and manipulative and it was intended to legitimize Wright as someone on a par with one of Obama's only slightly prejudiced white relatives. APPLES AND ORANGES. His lines about not being able to disown Wright any more than he could disown old grannie was complete sophistry and simply dishonest.Wright isn't his relative. You choose your Pastor and you don't choose your relatives. OBAMA IS SIMPLY SORRY HE GOT CAUGHT in the man's audience not sorry for what the man said. Obama simply didn't have the courage and class to confront Wright on his racist bullshit and take appropriate action (leave the church) if Wright had refused to knock it off, which of course he would have. I believe Obama was intimidated by Wright, who probably is a bully with a lot of power in the South Side black community. Oprah wasn't. She left the church over the bastard's hate speech and took a lot of flack from Wright over it.

[Tommy008]

what i meant to say was that of course wright would have refused to knock off the hate speech if Obama had demanded it, years ago.

[donniedanger]

If Obama had only had 2 more American flags up on stage with him, I believe he could have pulled it off.................

Joanie.....if we can convince him to wear a flag pin and go on letterman and put his hand over his heart while singing the national anthem, we can clinch this thing...................

Power to the People!

[WenG]

Tommy 008: "there's an unseemly avarice for power about himself and his wife,"

If he's avaricious, what are the Clintons? And this "He's not a Christian" screed is very, very old.

America has been crushed by racism. Deal with it. Geraldine "Mob Money" Ferraro can howl all she wants about being white. She's a has been, just like the Clintons and their privileged friends in the GOP.

When will McCain be forced out of his recliner to answer for his lunatic statements on the war, money, and this Haggee freak who thinks the Jews are to blame for Hilter's Holocaust?

We'll be damn lucky if Obama wins this job. Do we really want an old man in a flak jacket falling asleep at the wheel?

[lydia sopoliga]

OBAMA IS YOUTH AND HAS NO BAD HABITS. OBAMA needs to be encouraged. Mc Cain old and TREACHEROUS. The saying goes... " Age and treachery will overcome Youth and Skill"